POLITICAL & ECONOMIC RISK CONSULTANCY LTD
Asian
Risk Prospects -- 2010
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Table
of Contents (Subscribers only can
download the report in pdf formate by clicking here)
Summary of Major Risks in 2010............................................................................... 1
A Graphic Summary
of Overall Comparative Country Risks............................... 3
Graphic Ranking
of Countries by Major Risk Categories..................................... 4
Explanation of
Comparative Country Risk Model Structure................................ 5
1. Domestic Political Risks........................................................................................... 6
1a. The risk of a change of
government and key leaders in coming year................................................ 7
1b. The
risk of a disruptive political change............................................................................................... 15
1c. Quality of the government's
policies...................................................................................................... 24
1d. Ineffectiveness
of the government in implementing its policies...................................................... 31
2. Social Instability Risks.......................................................................................... 38
2a. Labor activism............................................................................................................................................. 39
2b. Threat posed by social
activism/unrest................................................................................................ 47
2c. Extent that regionalism is a
problem or threat..................................................................................... 55
3. External Political Risks......................................................................................... 62
3a. Direct military threats............................................................................................................................... 63
3b. Vulnerability to fallout from
socio-political instability in other countries................................... 70
3c. Vulnerability to policy changes
by governments in other countries............................................... 77
4. Systemic Risks......................................................................................................... 86
4a. Extent that corruption is a problem........................................................................................................ 88
4b. Nationalism and cultural risks................................................................................................................ 97
4c. Institutional weaknesses........................................................................................................................ 104
Appendix 1:
Formula for Calculating the
Socio-Political Risk Index........... 113
Appendix 2:
Comparison of 2009 Grades with 2010
Grades........................ 114